RECHERCHE ET ANALYSE
Security considerations and trade in energy resources
Sergei F. Sutyrin
Professeur, Directeur du D閜artement de l'閏onomie mondiale
Universit?d'蓆at de Saint-Petersbourg, titulaire d'une chaire de l'OMC
Nikita A. Lomagin
Professeur, Directeur-adjoint du D閜artement de l'閏onomie mondiale
Universit?d'蓆at de Saint-Petersbourg
(uniquement en anglais)
One could sensibly argue that any future sustainable model of global
governance (perceived from the WTR 2010 perspective) should ultimately
result in trade in natural resources pattern that simultaneously meets
several basic requirements. At least, it has to be predictable,
transparent, mutually advantageous, and responsive to changing economic
environment. At the moment the situation is far from being satisfactory.
This is largely due to a fact that all three groups of countries
involved in energy trade ?exporters, importers, and transit states ?not just have serious respective security concerns but tend to
prioritize them higher than commercial considerations. Under the
circumstances existing difference in energy security perceptions between
aforementioned groups constitutes one of major problems, if not the main
one.
The need for finding a common denominator in terms of energy security is
well understood practically by all affected parties. In particular, G-8 Summit in St.Petersburg (2006) has elaborated a quite detailed programme
to cope with the issue; international institutions (OPEC, the EU to
mentioned few) organizations have proposed their visions. General support of the idea came from US President Barack Obama and his Russian
counterpart Dmitry Medvedev. This political will is complemented by
certain trend towards convergence of theoretical approaches to energy
security.
Two aforementioned components are very significant but not sufficient.
In terms of theoretical understanding substantial gap still remains
regarding interaction of market and non-market instruments in attempts
to reduce price volatility of energy resources. The very nature of
energy security also requires clarification. In particular, it is often
claimed that this is a global good. Sharing this idea in general we
would argue that at the national level energy security confirms (with
sensible reservations) to the criteria of global public good. In
contrast to that, international energy security rather belongs to the
domain of global merit ones. The difference arrears to be significant
and deserves detailed analysis.
From institutional point of view global energy issues (as well as any
other global ones) should be tackled with appropriate tools, which at
the moment are clearly lacking. According to our understanding there is
a need to go beyond existing institutional framework and to establish
something tentatively named Global Energy Forum (GEF). In line with
general idea of network global governance model it would include all
variety of stakeholders. First of all, they are major exporters,
importers and transit countries presented both by state authorities and
business community. Serious involvement of leading international
institutions ?WB, OECD, EU, OPEC, Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF),
and many others ?appears to be equally significant. Each of them has
its own agenda, constituency, composition resulting in respective
understanding of energy issues in general, trade in energy resources in
particular.
What about World Trade Organization? Several points look relevant.
Firstly, the WTO is in a way a newcomer in comparison with some
representatives of 搊ld guard?who for almost four decades tried to
regulate the market under review.
Secondly, one could hardly expect that these institutions would
willingly sacrifice any meaningful share of their responsibilities in
favour of the WTO. At least for some of 搊ld guard?this transfer of
power means actual suicide.
Thirdly, internal dynamics doesn抰 promote the WTO towards the leading
position in global energy governance debate. In particular, serious
problems experienced within the framework of DDA negatively influenced
international image and soft power of the organization. At the moment,
WTO could hardly sustain any additional workload especially such a heavy
one as energy. In addition to that, some attempts to get substantial
concessions on energy issues as a part of accession process have de
facto failed. In contrast to their formal commitments, neither Saudi
Arabia nor Ukraine significantly changed their behavior as energy actors
after the WTO accession. It would be safe to suggest that (regardless of
some expectations) this instrument of 慼armonization?will not work with
other energy-exporting acceding countries (e.g. Russia, Iran, Iraq, and
Algeria).
Fourthly, among the main strongholds of the WTO there are at least two
advantages which could be invoked now. To start with, the institution
has accumulated enormous experience in holding multilateral negotiations
aimed at reaching a consensus based compromise. And this is exactly what
is urgently needed for provision of sufficient conditions to launch
fruitful global dialogue on energy governance. In addition to that, one
might argue that current WTO leadership is ambitious, open-minded, and
active.
Thus, at least for these reasons the only promising option for the WTO
under the circumstances, from our point of view, is the following:
- to take reality as it is and not to strive for the role of the leading
regulator in energy domain;
- to initiate parleys with key actors aimed at establishing of GEF;
- to participate in GEF activities in any possible way
- and later on to integrate into the WTO framework the results of such
parleys.