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World trade and output

Selected Indicators, 1948-2002

a Growth rates refer to 1950 instead of 1948.

Sources: Population: UN World Population Prospects 2000 revision.
GDP, current: IMF World Economic Outlook. April 2003.
GDP, 1987 prices: World Bank and WTO.
Trade: WTO International Trade Statistics 2002 and World Trade Report 2003

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World trade and output growth by sector, 2001

Annual percentage change in volume

Source: WTO International Trade Statistics 2002

 

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World exports of merchandise and commercial services, 1990-2002

Billion dollars and percentage

Source: WTO

 

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Least-developed countries (LDCs), merchandise exports by selected country group, 1990-2002

Billion dollars and percentage

a  Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan and Yemen.
b  Bangladesh, Cambodia, Haiti, Lao People’s Dem. Rep., Lesotho, Madagascar, Myanmar and Nepal.
c  Afghanistan, Burundi, Congo Dem. Rep, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Somalia.

Source: WTO

 

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Developing economies?trade and output growth, 1990-2002

Annual percentage change

Source: WTO

 

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Latin America ?merchandise trade, 1990-2002

Billion dollars and percentage

Source: WTO

 

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Acceding countries?merchandise trade: Cambodia and Nepal, 1990-2002

Million dollars and percentage

Source: WTO

 

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GATT/WTO: 50 years of tariff reductions

MFN tariff reduction of industrial countries for industrial products, excluding petroleum

Note: Tariff reductions for the first five trade rounds refer to US only

a Source: US Tariff Commission, Operations of the Trade Agreements Program, 1st to 13th report covering June 1934 to June 1960

b Refers to four markets: US, Japan, EC(6), and UK. Source: Ernest H Preeg, Traders and Diplomats, Tables 13-1 to 13-4 and WTO calculations based on 1964 import values

c Refers to eight markets: US, EU(9), Japan, Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland Source: GATT, COM.TD/W/315, 4.7.1980, p.20-21 and WTO calculations

d Refers to eight markets: US, EU(12), Japan, Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland. Source: GATT, The Results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations, November 1994, Appendix Table 5 and WTO calculations

 

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FDI flows and global integration

• Global FDI inflows amounted to $735 billion in 2001 and are estimated to have declined to $534 billion in 2002.
• FDI inflows dropped by 59% in developed countries and 14% in developing countries in 2001 following a 16% annual growth between 1973 and 2000.
• Global FDI outward stock rose nearly 6 fold between 1990 and 2001 reaching $6.6 trillion in 2001.
• Cross-border mergers & acquisitions valued $594 billion in 2001, over 4 times the average of $145 billion during 1990-94.
• FDI inflows to developing and transition economies rose to 28% and 4% in 2001 compared to 18% and 2% in 1999/2000.
• FDI flows to Africa rose from $9 billion in 2000 to more than $17 billion in 2001.

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2001 and 2002

 

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Global benefits from cuts in trade protection

There are a number of published studies that examine the potential impact of trade liberalization in general and specific elements of the Doha Development Agenda in particular. Comparing them systematically is impossible because researchers have used a wide range of methods and data. Nevertheless, a number of consistent results across these studies provide an insight into the economic potential of trade negotiations.

• The largest share of benefits from liberalization typically goes to the country that liberalizes.
• Most developing countries would gain from a broader market access package of trade liberalization.
• If tariffs are eliminated completely, the range of estimated economic benefits (“welfare gains? is $80?500 billion. Estimates of the share going to developing countries are in the range 40?0%.
• What if trade-distorting agricultural policies are eliminated completely, i.e. domestic support, export subsidies and tariffs? The range of estimated gains is $8-$10 billion. (These estimates are net totals since some countries stand to lose from the elimination.)
• If export subsidies are removed, some developing countries stand to lose because their imports will become more expensive compared with other products. However, their losses can be compensated by their gains if all countries liberalize appropriately on the market access side.
• In the agriculture negotiations, tariff liberalization is the largest source of gains for developing countries as a group.
• The gains from services trade liberalization are estimated to be between two to four times the gains from merchandise trade liberalization.
• The gains from trade facilitation are estimated to be 2-5% of the value of trade and 50-100% of the gains from merchandise trade liberalization.
• It is estimated that $81.1 billion of developing-country imports are affected by export cartels.

For more information, a selection of studies on trade liberalization:

• International Monetary Fund (2002) World Economic Outlook, September, Washington, IMF.
• Levenstein, M. C., and Suslow, V., “Private International Cartels and The Effect on Developing Countries? Background Paper to the World Bank’s World Development Report 2001, Washington, D.C., 2001.
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2001), “Business benefits of trade facilitation? TD/TC/WP (2001) 21/Final, Paris, OECD.
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2003), “The Doha Development Agenda: welfare gains from further multilateral trade liberalization with respect to tariffs? TD/TC/WP (2003) 10/Final, Paris, OECD.
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2003), Back to basics: market access issues in the Doha Agenda, Geneva, UNCTAD.
• World Bank (2002), Global Economic Prospects 2002: making trade work for the world’s poor, Washington, World Bank.

 

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Tariff rates in WTO members

This is a selection of available data. Average bound rates are not included because of differences in the numbers of products that are bound. For more details, see the WTO’s World Trade Report for 2003: “Trade Development and the Opportunities of Doha?

?indicates unavailable data.

* MFN applied data sourced from UNCTAD TRAINS database.

Source: WTO (2003), World Trade Report: Trade Development and the Opportunities of Doha, Geneva. WTO. See Appendix Tables IIB.1 - IIB.7 for more details and the Technical Notes for details on the calculation methodology.