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50 years of GATT/WTO 1948-1998 

• Merchandise trade grew by 6% annually, or 18 fold.
• Merchandise output grew by 4.2% annually, or 8 fold.
• The share of world GDP represented by merchandise trade grew from under 7% to 17.4%.
• Aggregate world trade in 1998 was $6.6 trillion, of which $5.3 trillion (80%) was merchandise and $1.3 trillion (20%) was commercial services. (Merchandise trade in 1948 was $58 billion.)
• GDP per capita grew by 1.9% annually.
• On average, per capita income is 2.5 times higher in 1998 than in 1948.

 

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FDI flows and global integration 

• Global FDI flows grew 27 fold (or 14% annually) between 1973 and 1998.
• Global FDI flows reached $645 billion in 1998 ($24 billion in 1973, $60 billion in 1985).
• Global FDI stock rose 8 fold since 1980 or 12.5% annually.
• Global FDI stock stood at $4,100 billion in 1998.
• Cross-border mergers & acquisitions topped $544 billion in 1998, more than three times the average of $145 billion during 1990-94.
• The ratio of FDI inward stock to GDP more than doubled between 1980 and 1997 globally, from 5.0% to 11.7%.
• For developing countries, the corresponding ratio almost tripled from 5.9% to 16.6%.
• For least-developed countries, the ratio rose from 2.2% in 1980 to 5.7% in 1997.

 

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Duty-free treatment for imports from least-developed countries 

• In 1998, US imports from the 48 least-developed countries (LDCs) amounted to $6.3 billion or 0.7% of total US merchandise imports.
• If US granted duty-free treatment to imports from LDCs, the US tariff revenue loss would be $123 million out of a total US tariff revenue of $17,500 million.

 

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Trade benefits for US workers and consumers 

(Figures from USTR website)

• Full implementation of WTO agreements (by 2005) will boost US GDP by $125–250 billion per year.
• The annual effect will be equivalent to an increase of $1500–$3000 in purchasing power for the average American family of four.
• Between 1994 and 1998, 1.3 million new jobs supported by exports were created in the US.
• Over the same period, total US employment increased by 11.7 million jobs, and the unemployment rate declined from 6.1% to 4.5%.
• Nearly 12 million jobs in the US (or almost 10% of all US jobs) depend on US exports.
• Jobs in the US supported by goods exports pay 13–16% above the average wage.
• Over 60% of the US economy and 80% of US jobs are accounted for by the services sector.
• The US is the world’s largest exporter of services totalling over $264 billion annually.

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Global benefits from 40% cuts in trade protection

(Figures from World Bank conference paper "Agriculture & Non-Agricultural Liberalization in the Millennium Round", Oct 1999)

Estimated global gains as a result of 40% cuts in protection by 2005 in the following areas:

• Agricultural subsidies & market price support $69.3 billion
• Tariffs on manufactures & mining products $69.6 billion
• Business, finance & construction services $21.6 billion
• Trade, transport & government services $332.6 billion

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GATT/WTO: 50 years of tariff reductions  

MFN tariff reduction of industrial countries for industrial products, excluding petroleum

Implementation period	Round covered	Weighted tariff reduction of all duties
1948–63	First five GATT rounds (1947–62) a	–36
1968–72	Kennedy Round (1964–67) b	–37
1980–87	Tokyo Round (1973–1979) c	–33
1995–99	Uruguay Round (1986–94) d	–38

NOTE: Tariff reductions for the first five trade rounds refer to US only

a) Source: US Tariff Commission, Operations of the Trade Agreements Program,
1st to 13th report covering June 1934 to June 1960

b) refers to four markets: US, Japan, EC(6), and UK.
Source: Ernest H Preeg, Traders and Diplomats, Tables 13-1 to 13–4
and WTO calculations based on 1964 import values

c) refers to eight markets: US, EU(9), Japan, Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland
Source: GATT, COM.TD/W/315, 4.7.1980, p.20–21 and WTO calculations

d) refers to eight markets: US, EU(12), Japan, Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland
Source: GATT, The Results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations,
November 1994, Appendix Table 5 and WTO calculations.

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World trade and output  back to top
Selected Indicators, 1948-98

						Average annual change
	1948	1950	1973	1990	1998	1948–73	1973–98	1948–98	1990–98
World merchandise exports
Billion current $	58	61	579	3,438	5,235	9.7	9.2	9.4	5.4
Billion constant 1990$	304	376	1797	3,438	5,683	7.4	4.7	6.0	6.5
Exports per capita, 1990$	123	149	466	651	951	5.5	2.9	4.2	4.9
World exports of manufactures
Billion current $	22	23	348	2,390	3,995	11.7	10.3	11.0	6.6
Billion constant 1990$	93	112	955	2,390	4,015	9.8	5.9	7.8	6.7
Exports per capita, 1990$	38	44	244	454	672	7.8	4.1	5.9	5.1
World output (Indices, 1990=100)
Commodity output	17	19	65	100	116	5.5	2.4	3.9	1.9
Manufacturing output	11	13	60	100	117	7.1	2.7	4.9	2.0
GDP (Billion, 1990$)	3,935	4,285	13,408	22,490	27,615	5.0	2.9	4.0	2.6
GDP per capita (1990$)	1,591	1,700	3,420	4,271	4,623	3.1	1.2	2.2	1.0
GDP (current $, market rate)	…	…	4,908	22,490	29,236	…	7.4	…	3.3
Trade-output ratio
Exports of goods and services, to GDP, at constant 1987 prices	…	8.0	14.9	19.7	26.4	…	…	…	…
World population (million)	2,473	2,521	3,920	5,266	5,973	1.9	1.7	1.8	1.6